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☆ This semiconductor ETF is headed for its best quarterly gain in a year. Here are the winners
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Semiconductor stocks are off to another hot start to the year. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 28.5% in the first three months of 2024. That puts the SMH on pace for its biggest quarterly gain since the first quarter of 2023, when it jumped 30%. The stock is up more than 30% to start 2024. Shares have skyrocketed more than 39% to start 2024, helped by strong sales in high bandwidth memory necessary in AI infrastructure.

Persons: Ken Mahoney, Nvidia, Hendi, Management's Paul Meeks, Andrew Garthwaite cautioning Organizations: VanEck Semiconductor, Asset, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Apple, Devices, JPMorgan, PHLX Semiconductor, Intel, Micron Technology, Micron, UBS, Universal Locations: Taiwan

Lawmakers have conveyed as much directly to the White House, a US official told CNN. Biden met with House and Senate lawmakers at the White House on Wednesday to outline what is at stake for Ukraine. House Speaker Mike Johnson makes a statement alongside Reps. Mike Turner, Mike Rogers and Mike McCaul on January 17, outside the White House. Privately, some US and Western officials say there could be as many as five more years of fighting. In the near term, Ukraine may be able to hang on, albeit in a stalemate, without US support, a Western intelligence source said.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Jake Sullivan, National Intelligence Avril Haines, Mike Johnson, I’ve, ‘, ’ ” Johnson, CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, ”, ” Biden, Mike Turner, Mike Rogers, Mike McCaul, Samuel Corum, Donald Trump, Trump, Mike Quigley, CNN Max, “ He’s, Putin, outlast, “, Sen, Lindsey Graham, Michael McCaul, ” Said, Kostiantyn, don’t, Volodymyr Zelensky, Gitanas Nauseda, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ints Kalnins, ” Zelenskyy, ” Trump, Alexi J . Rosenfeld, frontloading Organizations: CNN, Ukraine, White, Pentagon, Defense, National Intelligence, White House, NATO, Republicans, Getty, Kyiv, ” Democratic, Administration, Trump, Republican, Biden, Ukrainian National Guard, Army Tactical Missile Systems, Reuters, Russian Central Bank Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Afghanistan, Kyiv, Europe, Ukrainian, Kreminna, Donetsk Oblast, Moscow, Iran, North Korea, Crimea, Sevastopol, Melitopol, Vilnius, Lithuania, New York City, West

BUENOS AIRES/NEW YORK, June 18 (Reuters) - Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have a $44 billion dilemma, with the two sides set to meet for crunch talks to revamp the country's huge, wobbling debt deal, key to avoiding default on billions in looming debt payments. Economy Minister Sergio Massa is expected in Washington as early as this week to try to unlock talks to accelerate IMF disbursements and ease economic targets attached to the deal, with investors and traders watching closely. "The fund knows that Argentina is a problem, it is its main debtor, but it seems to me that the negotiation has stagnated. Reuters Graphics'DAMAGE CONTROL'The government is hoping to bring forward over $10 billion in IMF disbursements scheduled for this year, though is reluctant to agree to tough austerity measures with an eye on October general elections where it faces likely defeat. "Investors are paying real attention to signs from the IMF negotiations," said economist Gustavo Ber.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Ricardo Delgado, Massa, Hugo Godoy, Gustavo Ber, Walter Bianchi, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Daniel Wallis Organizations: BUENOS AIRES, International Monetary Fund, Economy, IMF, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Institute of International Finance, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: BUENOS, Argentina, Washington, Argentine, Buenos Aires, China

☆ China's factory activity swings to surprise growth in May - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April, above the 50-point index mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading surpassed expectations of 49.5 in a Reuters poll, a stark contrast to a deeper contraction activity seen in the official PMI released on Wednesday. The manufacturing subindexes showed factory output rose at the fastest clip in 11 months while new orders including new exports expanded in May. However, business confidence for the coming 12 months fell to a seven-month low amid concerns over global economic prospects. "Current economic growth lacks internal drive and market entities lack sufficient confidence, highlighting the importance of expanding and restoring demand, " said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.

Persons: Zhou Hao, Hang, Wang Zhe, 25bps, Liangping Gao, Joe Cash, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: P Global, PMI, Guotai, CSI, Caixin Insight, ANZ, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

☆ Morning Bid: Volatile news, not markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates again on Wednesday, the move could be its last. So in a holiday-strewn month around the world, the VIX (.VIX) - Wall St's so-called 'fear gauge' of the implied stock market volatility for the month ahead - hit its lowest level on Monday since November 2021. Even though it ticked back up a bit above 16 overnight, it remains three full points below its 33-year historical average. For macro markets, the Fed decision is complicated by the debt ceiling and banking backdrop. March job openings numbers later on Tuesday will give an indication of just how tight the labor market remains.

Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, has raised its benchmark interest rate by 700 basis points since its rate-hiking cycle started in June 2021, as inflation surged far beyond its target of 3%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. Initially Heath, who is regarded as one board's most hawkish members, expected to vote for a 25 basis points hike at the last meeting, until incoming data painted a "less benign" picture for inflation. He added that new information could sway Banxico's board members one way or another before the March 30 meeting. "Frontloading" with a half percentage point hike sought to keep that jump in services inflation to a one-off situation, said Heath, noting he saw price pressures starting to transition to more local and domestic factors from the predominantly global factors seen in recent years. Reporting by Anthony Esposito and Noe Torres; Editing by David HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Bullard urges colleagues not to "stall" on remaining rate increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationWASHINGTON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Wednesday that U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers should get the policy rate of interest above 5% "as quickly as we can" before pausing rate increases needed to battle an ongoing outbreak of inflation. Asked during a Wall Street Journal event if he was open to another half point rate increase at the Fed's upcoming meeting, Bullard responded "why not go to where we're supposed to go?...Why stall?" Bullard said he felt the policy of "frontloading" rate increases with larger three-quarter-point and half-point increases had worked well, and that he saw no reason to stop until the policy rate was nearer the level seen as a likely stopping point. In projections issued in December the median official saw that "terminal" rate at around 5.1%. With the risks of inflation remaining higher than expected and the economy at this point performing better than anticipated, "let's move the policy rate to the right level...then we'll see how 2023 unfolds."

☆ Britain's new 'winter of discontent' deepens as widespread strikes mount over festive period
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In recent weeks, upcoming strike actions have been announced by nurses, rail workers, postal workers, ambulance workers, airport staff, Border Force agents, highway workers, Eurostar staff, civil servants, bus drivers, firefighters, charity workers, meteorologists and offshore workers. For the public sector, real earnings were 5 percentage points lower, and Hollingsworth suggested that the growing gap had become "unsustainable." "I think there's clearly a lot of pressure here for some catch-up on the public sector side of things, and it's clear that there is that labor bargaining power there." "However, the gap between private and public sector pay narrowed slightly, with private sector pay up 6.9%, while public sector pay is up by 2.7%." However, with negotiations remaining fraught and unions showing no signs of backing down, he said some catch-up on public sector pay growth will likely be required to prevent further disruption.

☆ British government to usher in new era of austerity in effort to restore market confidence
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

We're going to see spending cuts," Hunt told the BBC on Sunday, while also promising the government would deliver a new and more focused plan to help with household energy bills beyond April. First, an increase in council tax with local authorities allowed to raise the level of council tax above 3% without a referendum," Raja said. "And second, an increase in both the duration and scale of the windfall tax on oil and gas 'excess profits'." Spending cuts, again executed via "stealth," could take the form of "nominal cash freezes to departmental budgets," Raja said, with spending budgets topped up minimally going forward. "If he wants to reassure the markets, he will have to announce early action in the form of a big fiscal tightening.

☆ U.S. dollar surges as traders say markets overreacted to U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But Governor Christopher Waller flagged on Sunday that the inflation print was "just one data point" and that other similar readings would be needed to show convincingly that inflation was slowing. Waller did add, however, that the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. The euro fell 0.6% against the dollar to $1.0284 at 1130 GMT, after rising to a three-month high during Asian trading hours. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies including the euro, yen, and sterling, rose 0.4% to 107.14. The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped, giving up some gains made after China moderated its zero COVID strategy.

☆ ECB can't just mirror Fed moves, Lagarde says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank must be attentive to policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which influence global markets, but cannot just mirror its moves, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday after the Fed guided for more rate hikes. But Lagarde said the ECB, which itself raised rates by 75 basis points last week, could not simply mimic the Fed because economic conditions were different in the 19-country euro zone - a point underscored earlier by ECB board member Fabio Panetta. Lagarde conceded the ECB was "influenced by the consequences" of Fed action through financial markets and especially the euro's exchange rate, which was falling against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. "Clearly the exchange rate matters and has to be taken into account in our inflation projections," Lagarde said. He was echoed by Portuguese central bank governor Mario Centeno, who said in an interview the ECB had already completed a large part of the rate hikes it sees as needed.

☆ Global economy approaching a recession, central banks unchained: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The global economy is approaching a recession as economists polled by Reuters once again cut growth forecasts for key economies while central banks keep raising interest rates to bring down persistently-high inflation. After being late to call the inflation problem, global central banks have spent most of this year frontloading rate hikes to catch up. Most economists and central banks are of the view there will be little work left to do next year. Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, said "risk of a global recession" is what everyone's talking about and has become mainstream in forecasts. Reuters Poll - Terminal rate outlookOf the 22 central banks polled this time, only six were expected to hit their inflation targets by the end of next year.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed isn't about to back down from its inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. London CNN Business —Twelve days from now, the Federal Reserve will meet again, and expectations for the central bank’s next moves are firming up. The consensus among investors: Persistently hot inflation means the Fed will need to continue with its string of aggressive interest rate hikes, which is unprecedented in the modern era. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation had become “pernicious,” which means that “frontloading” larger rate hikes is logical. But with two quarters of disappointing deliveries caused by supply chain issues and Covid-related shutdowns in China, that goal has looked increasingly out of reach, my CNN Business colleague Chris Isidore reports.

☆ Oil steady as recession woes counter positive Chinese signals
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures were down 1 cents, or 0.01%, to $91.62 a barrel, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $85.46 after a 7.6% decline last week. Beijing will also greatly increase domestic energy supply capacity and step up risk controls in key commodities including coal, oil, gas and electricity, a senior National Energy Administration official said on Monday. "It's been another turbulent few weeks in oil markets from global growth concerns to super-sized OPEC+ output cuts and it seems they're yet to fully settle down," said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA. OPEC+ output cuts attracted funds back to the oil markets, with continued heavy buying of crude oil futures and options for a second straight week.

☆ Oil rises as positive Chinese signals counter recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures rose 53 cents, or 0.6%, to $92.16 a barrel by 1245 GMT, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 34 cents, or 0.4%, at $85.95 after a 7.6% decline last week. China will further increase reserve capacities for key commodities, another state official told a news conference in Beijing. The third-quarter GDP data, along with September activity data, is due for release on Oct. 18 at 0200 GMT. Meanwhile a strong U.S. dollar and further interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve are helping to contain price gains.

Oct 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after China rolled over liquidity measures to help its pandemic-hit economy, igniting hopes for a better fuel demand outlook from the world's top crude importer. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.33 a barrel, up 72 cents, or 0.84%, after a 7.6% decline last week. China's central bank rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans while keeping the interest rate unchanged for a second month on Monday. Although its third-quarter GDP growth could rebound from the previous quarter, President Xi's stringent COVID-19 policy has the world's No. "Tighter inventories for oil and oil products along with looming supply risks should keep prices volatile," analysts at ANZ Research said in a note.

Oct 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after China rolled over liquidity measures to help its pandemic-hit economy, igniting hopes for a better fuel demand outlook from the world's top crude importer. Brent crude futures rose 66 cents, or 0.7%, to $92.29 a barrel by 0430 GMT, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.17 a barrel, up 56 cents, or 0.6%, after a 7.6% decline last week. China's central bank rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans while keeping the interest rate unchanged for a second month on Monday. "Tighter inventories for oil and oil products along with looming supply risks should keep prices volatile," analysts at ANZ Research said in a note.

☆ Oil bounces higher as U.S. dollar's strength eases
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose in thin trade in early Asian hours on Monday as the U.S. dollar's strength eased while investors awaited data from China to gauge demand at the world's top crude oil importer. Brent crude futures rose 85 cents, or 0.9%, to $92.48 a barrel by 0019 GMT, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.34 a barrel, up 73 cents, or 0.9%, after a 7.6% decline last week. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"U.S. dollar index futures were lower today, which also provided a rebounding opportunity for the oil markets," she added. A weaker dollar makes oil more affordable for holders of other currencies.

☆ Gold firms as dollar rally pauses; rate-hike woes cap gains
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rose on Monday after declining more than 1% in the previous session, as a pause in the dollar rally alleviated some pressure from the greenback-priced bullion, though looming U.S. rate hike restricted further gains. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,648.91 per ounce, as of 0405 GMT. The dollar index was flat, while the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields eased, moving away from the 14-year peak touched last week. A survey from the University of Michigan on Friday showed consumer sentiment improved further in October, but inflation expectations deteriorated a bit, keeping expectations of another 75-basis-point rate hike intact. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. rates, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

☆ Wall St drops as consumer data stokes inflation worry
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SummarySummary Companies JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profitS&P 500, Nasdaq post weekly declinesU.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation ests. "The main thrust for the market right now is higher interest rates, higher inflation and the Fed is going to continue to move its fed funds target higher," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan. For the week, the Dow gained 1.15%, the S&P 500 lost 1.56% and the Nasdaq fell 3.11%. Analysts now expect third-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies to have risen just 3.6% from a year ago, much lower than an 11.1% increase expected at the start of July, according to Refinitiv data. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 235 new lows.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterIf the Fed follows through with two more 75-basis-point hikes this year, its policy rate would end 2022 in a range of 4.50%-4.75%. It is very possible that the data would come in a way that forces the (Federal Open Market) Committee higher on the policy rate. The possibility of a fifth larger-than-usual increase in December is "a little more frontloading than what I've said in the past," he added. Though some investors and economists expect the Fed will need to lift its policy rate even further, to 5% or higher, Bullard said, "I wouldn't predict that now ... Volatility in markets is to be expected when rates rise, he said, but may settle after a period of adjustment.

In a Reuters interview, Bullard said U.S. Consumer Price Index data for September released this week showed inflation had become "pernicious" and difficult to arrest, and therefore "it makes sense that we're still moving quickly." It is very possible that the data would come in a way that forces the committee higher on the policy rate. But it's also possible that you get a good disinflationary dynamic going and in that situation the committee could keep the policy rate and hold it steady," Bullard said a day after the CPI report for September showed inflation continued above 8%. read moreThe possibility of a fifth larger-than-usual increase in December is "a little more front loading than what I've said in the past," Bullard said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Howard SchneiderOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB policymakers back another jumbo hike as inflation rises further
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

VILNIUS, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Four European Central Bank policymakers on Thursday backed another big interest rate hike next month as euro zone inflation looked set for another record high, but they differed on whether it was time to think about mopping up cash from the economy. The ECB has raised rates by a combined 125 basis points over its past two meetings and promised further increases as inflation rises towards 10% and longer-term expectations edge above its 2% target. Strengthening the case for another 75-basis-point increase, data on Thursday showed inflation in Germany's most populous state jumped to 10.1% in September - the most since the early 1950s. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterGermany will publish a nationwide flash estimate for September inflation later on Thursday, with a reading for the 19-country euro zone due on Friday. "My choice would be 75 (basis points)," ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus told Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of a conference in Vilnius.

☆ ECB should focus on rate policy over balance sheet cut, Centeno says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

FRANKFURT, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should focus on interest rate policy over balance sheet operations as its deposit rate is still far from the so-called neutral rate, the bank's intermediate goal, Portuguese central bank chief Mario Centeno told Bloomberg TV. "Right now frontloading other debates may in my opinion have a destabilising effect that we really need to avoid," Centeno said when asked if it was time to discuss quantitative tightening. "We have a path towards normalisation of monetary policy and that's the focus right now." Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Balazs Koranyi Editing by Raissa KasolowskyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The October move should then be followed by another step that takes the ECB to what policymakers call the neutral rate, which neither stimulates nor slows growth, ending a more than decade-long experiment with ultra-easy policy. "In my view, we are heading towards the range of the neutral rate by Christmas," said Rehn, 60, a potential Finnish presidential candidate who often tops opinion polls. While undefined, the neutral rate is seen somewhere between 1.5% and 2%, well above the ECB's 0.75% deposit rate. "For euro zone inflation, there is one driver above others and one anchor more important than others," Rehn said. While a downturn is increasingly likely to morph into a recession given sky-high energy prices and potential energy shortages, Rehn argued this was still a small price to pay.

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